| 19 MAR 2011 at 4:19pm |
KevlarSocksColonel


Posts : 5988 Joined: 11 SEP 2005
Status : Offline | [image]http://beta.images.theglobeandmail.com/archive/01253/satedcar19co1_1253962cl-8.jpg[/image]
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| 19 MAR 2011 at 4:49pm |
KevlarSocksColonel


Posts : 5988 Joined: 11 SEP 2005
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By ActionJack
What's that word? Dithering!
"So it was with something of a surprise that Washington awoke this morning to discover that the council had authorised "all necessary means", including a no-fly zone, to protect Libya's population from Colonel Muammar Qaddafi. By comparison with the year or more of angst that preceded George Bush's invasion of Iraq in 2003, the pros and cons of this decision have received remarkably little debate."
http://www.economist.com/blogs/lexington/2011/03/libya
You have to turn off your autopilot.
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| 19 MAR 2011 at 6:12pm |
bayonetbrantColonel


Posts : 7056 Joined: 18 MAR 2007
Status : Offline | Looks like those French 'recon flights' might've been feeding targets to the cruise missile shooters.
Check out GrogNews for wargaming / mil news.
http://grognews.blogspot.com

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| 19 MAR 2011 at 8:16pm |
ActionJackColonel


Posts : 7885 Joined: 19 SEP 2005
Status : Offline | When the Germans got back control over West Germany, they had a pretty functional country. How functional is Afghanistan now, as a state in the Western sense of that term, according to you?
How many years before they got their government back? Now that's with an intentional plan to rebuild Germany. No intentional plan for Afghanistan but to topple the Taliban. Now the mission has changed so give it at least the same amount of time for Germany PLUS consider the tribal nature of Afghanistan versus the nation state of Germany with a people who believed in following authority. I get you hostility because you can't point to anything noteworthy in your country so you've got to run down the top dog. Jealousy is an ugly trait.
... would you say the "protection of unarmed people" and the prevention of "people getting slaughtered" was a stellar success in either Afghanistan ...
I've heard of 'strawman' arguments, but strawman missions? Again, that's not a mission goal in Afghanistan; not when we invaded and not now either even with the mission creep.
"Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else." Frederic Bastiat 1801-1850

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| 19 MAR 2011 at 8:23pm |
ActionJackColonel


Posts : 7885 Joined: 19 SEP 2005
Status : Offline | Correct, but AJ said we were not in Afghanistan for nation building, which makes me wonder why he thinks (pro-)NATO forces are in the country, also considering the diminished threat of Al Qaeda.
Get it right. I said we didn't go to Afghanistan to nation build. I also mentioned 'mission creep' and that Iraq was always the priority. You might not know but in military doctrine nation building in a country with an indigenous insurgency is considered to take between 7 to 11 years to accomplish. You can start that clock with the present administration. It was not the mission of the previous administration nor the priority and with good reason. There's no national interest at risk with Afghanistan. Also, the present administration has said from the start that it plans on leaving Afghanistan and gave a drop dead date, so it doesn't sound like 'nation building' is on their agenda either.
"Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else." Frederic Bastiat 1801-1850

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| 19 MAR 2011 at 8:24pm |
ActionJackColonel


Posts : 7885 Joined: 19 SEP 2005
Status : Offline | Correct, but AJ said we were not in Afghanistan for nation building, which makes me wonder why he thinks (pro-)NATO forces are in the country, also considering the diminished threat of Al Qaeda.
Get it right. I said we didn't go to Afghanistan to nation build. I also mentioned 'mission creep' and that Iraq was always the priority. You might not know but in military doctrine nation building in a country with an indigenous insurgency is considered to take between 7 to 11 years to accomplish. You can start that clock with the present administration. It was not the mission of the previous administration nor the priority and with good reason. There's no national interest at risk with Afghanistan. Also, the present administration has said from the start that it plans on leaving Afghanistan and gave a drop dead date, so it doesn't sound like 'nation building' is on their agenda either.
"Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else." Frederic Bastiat 1801-1850

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| 19 MAR 2011 at 8:29pm |
ActionJackColonel


Posts : 7885 Joined: 19 SEP 2005
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By KevlarSocks
Originally Posted By ActionJack
What's that word? Dithering!
"So it was with something of a surprise that Washington awoke this morning to discover that the council had authorised "all necessary means", including a no-fly zone, to protect Libya's population from Colonel Muammar Qaddafi. By comparison with the year or more of angst that preceded George Bush's invasion of Iraq in 2003, the pros and cons of this decision have received remarkably little debate."
http://www.economist.com/blogs/lexington/2011/03/libya
You have to turn off your autopilot.
I wouldn't start celebrating just yet. The French have offered only 20 or so planes and that's the largest commitment I've read. The U.S. has said 'none'. I've got to think the advisers have already explained that without a major commitment from the U.S. this whole thing could unravel. An extended standoff will become untenable for the West given the affect on the oil markets. I doesn't sound too good to me.
"Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else." Frederic Bastiat 1801-1850

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| 19 MAR 2011 at 10:50pm |
KevlarSocksColonel


Posts : 5988 Joined: 11 SEP 2005
Status : Offline | Why? Cruise missiles have take out air defenses. Libyan fighters are no match for western planes. In a couple days western jets will have free reign over the country so any hardware moving around gets plinked. It will be back to guys with ak47s in pickups against others similarly equipped. That means the rebels have a real chance.
The later question will be who do the new leaders support with their oil money? If they continue to sell to the EU there will be pressure against any radical islam support. There is a good chance it will work out.
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| 20 MAR 2011 at 5:35am |
ActionJackColonel


Posts : 7885 Joined: 19 SEP 2005
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By KevlarSocks
Why? Cruise missiles have take out air defenses. Libyan fighters are no match for western planes. In a couple days western jets will have free reign over the country so any hardware moving around gets plinked. It will be back to guys with ak47s in pickups against others similarly equipped. That means the rebels have a real chance.
The later question will be who do the new leaders support with their oil money? If they continue to sell to the EU there will be pressure against any radical islam support. There is a good chance it will work out.
The number of plane commited is not enough to enforce both a no-fly zone and prevent movement of vehicles.
"Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else." Frederic Bastiat 1801-1850

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| 20 MAR 2011 at 6:07am |
StaggerwingColonel


Posts : 3317 Joined: 4 AUG 2007
Status : Offline | I think you'll find the Europeans are fairly motivated to continue this effort. I frequently
discern the bottom line drivers behind many of these things by who is in favor and who
is against action. Some of the countries who've taken point on this are the ones who
are the largest importer of Libyan oil and the ones who complain the most are those
who will potentially benefit from an increase in demand for crude in Europe- namely
Happy Li'l Hugo and The Rodina. Both stand to gain significant political clout if they
can get more European countries dependent on their oil (and NatGas) who are currently
less dependent than those in Central and Eastern parts of the continent. Never mind the
Euros they will get as well. Think of all the shiny pointy toys Venezuela could buy...
Wit Ye further, or how...?
-Voluspa (Poetic Eddas)

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| 20 MAR 2011 at 7:06am |
FlashmanCommander


Posts : 2127 Joined: 3 JAN 2005 Location: England, Worcestershire
Status : Offline | I wouldn't start celebrating just yet. The French have offered only 20 or so planes and that's the largest commitment I've read. The U.S. has said 'none'. I've got to think the advisers have already explained that without a major commitment from the U.S. this whole thing could unravel. An extended standoff will become untenable for the West given the affect on the oil markets. I doesn't sound too good to me.
I think you're being over pessimstic. Iraq and Afganistan are simply too far away for any European Nation to reach without American logistic support.
In contrast there are lots of NATO assets in the Med. Just as examples there is a NATO headquarters in Naples, Italy. The home port of the French Navy is in Toulon. Major British airbases in Cyprus. Libya is winnable.
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| 20 MAR 2011 at 7:07am |
FlashmanCommander


Posts : 2127 Joined: 3 JAN 2005 Location: England, Worcestershire
Status : Offline | duplicate post
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| 20 MAR 2011 at 7:43am |
ComradePColonel


Posts : 6889 Joined: 1 JUL 2006 Location: NL
Status : Offline | I get you hostility because you can't point to anything noteworthy in your country so you've got to run down the top dog. Jealousy is an ugly trait.
Of course, my country is a socialist heaven where nothing interesting ever happens. Your world view remains as silly as it is interesting, from a deranged point of view.
I've heard of 'strawman' arguments, but strawman missions? Again, that's not a mission goal in Afghanistan; not when we invaded and not now either even with the mission creep.
So if thousands of people die in Bosnia, it's bad, but if hundreds of thousands become casualties or become internally displaced in Iraq or Afghanistan, it's OK because the mission wasn't to protect civilians, so it's OK if they suffer? Interesting rationale there, maybe you should team up with Fire of Destruction.
Get it right. I said we didn't go to Afghanistan to nation build. I also mentioned 'mission creep' and that Iraq was always the priority. You might not know but in military doctrine nation building in a country with an indigenous insurgency is considered to take between 7 to 11 years to accomplish. You can start that clock with the present administration. It was not the mission of the previous administration nor the priority and with good reason. There's no national interest at risk with Afghanistan. Also, the present administration has said from the start that it plans on leaving Afghanistan and gave a drop dead date, so it doesn't sound like 'nation building' is on their agenda either.
So what was the mission? To remove the Taliban from the national government level? That was achieved quickly, so why are (pro)NATO forces still there according to you? We're not building a nation, according to you, and the Taliban has also successfully been removed from power, according to an earlier statement by you, so what, exactly are Western forces doing in Afghanistan?
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| 20 MAR 2011 at 8:01am |
ActionJackColonel


Posts : 7885 Joined: 19 SEP 2005
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By Flashman
I wouldn't start celebrating just yet. The French have offered only 20 or so planes and that's the largest commitment I've read. The U.S. has said 'none'. I've got to think the advisers have already explained that without a major commitment from the U.S. this whole thing could unravel. An extended standoff will become untenable for the West given the affect on the oil markets. I doesn't sound too good to me.
I think you're being over pessimstic. Iraq and Afganistan are simply too far away for any European Nation to reach without American logistic support.
In contrast there are lots of NATO assets in the Med. Just as examples there is a NATO headquarters in Naples, Italy. The home port of the French Navy is in Toulon. Major British airbases in Cyprus. Libya is winnable.
Initial reports of actual assets offered are too paltry to be any benefit other than to draw this thing out. We'll see if they up the ante.
... who will potentially benefit from an increase in demand for crude in Europe- namely
Happy Li'l Hugo and The Rodina.
I don't think Chavez can benefit too much because their oil is high in sulfur content and benefit most by selling to the U.S. whose refineries can handle their crude. Increased costs in refining and transportation decreases the profit potential so I think Europe won't be seeing much of Chavez's oil.
"Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else." Frederic Bastiat 1801-1850

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| 20 MAR 2011 at 8:06am |
ActionJackColonel


Posts : 7885 Joined: 19 SEP 2005
Status : Offline | So if thousands of people die in Bosnia, it's bad, but if hundreds of thousands become casualties or become internally displaced in Iraq or Afghanistan, it's OK because the mission wasn't to protect civilians, so it's OK if they suffer?
Non sequitur! Ok or not, it's not the primary mission. How many French were harmed in the cross channel attack in June '44? How many Dutch were harmed in operation Market Garden? Is it Ok? Is ok even the point?
So what was the mission? To remove the Taliban from the national government level? That was achieved quickly, so why are (pro)NATO forces still there according to you? We're not building a nation, according to you, and the Taliban has also successfully been removed from power, according to an earlier statement by you, so what, exactly are Western forces doing in Afghanistan?
I'm not reposting! Go back and read it again (or for the first time) and you'll find those answers.
"Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else." Frederic Bastiat 1801-1850

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| 20 MAR 2011 at 8:19am |
FlashmanCommander


Posts : 2127 Joined: 3 JAN 2005 Location: England, Worcestershire
Status : Offline | Fair amount of assets committed already and more on the way..
France:
_Deployed a dozen Mirage and Rafale jets to survey rebel-held Benghazi, one fired on a Libyan military vehicle in first military strike of operation.
_Deploying the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier to the region Sunday from Toulon.
Canada:
_Sent six F-18s to Italy base; 140 military personnel involved.
_Frigate HMCS Charlottetown is in Mediterranean for possible staging ground for Canadian forces.
United States:
_Prepared to launch missile attacks on Libyan air defenses but so far not participating in initial air missions.
_Has two guided-missile destroyers in the Mediterranean, the USS Barry and USS Stout, two amphibious warships, the USS Kearsarge and USS Ponce, and a command-and-control ship, the USS Mount Whitney. The submarine USS Providence was also in the Mediterranean.
_Witnesses reported five F-18s, two C-17s and a C-130 cargo plane arrived at U.S. air base at Aviano in northern Italy, which is home to the 31st Fighter Wing.
Denmark:
_Six F-16s arrived at U.S. air base in Sigonella, Sicily and could be deployed as early as Sunday; 132 support staff.
Italy:
_Offered use of seven military bases: U.S. air bases at Sigonella, Sicily and Aviano in northern Italy; Italian air bases in Amendola near Foggia, Decimomannu in Sardinia, Gioia del Colle near Bari, base on Sicilian island of Pantelleria, and the military airport of Trapani, Sicily.
_Proposed NATO base in Naples serve as coordination point for operation.
Spain:
_Sent four F-18s and a Boeing 707 refueling plane to Italy base.
_Deploying a submarine, naval frigate and a surveillance plane.
_Placed two bases at NATO's disposal, Rota and Moron de la Frontera, where several U.S. Air Force planes were seen Friday.
Britain:
_Said it would send Typhoon and Tornado jets to air bases, but no British fighter assets have yet been deployed, the Ministry of Defense said.
_Britain's air base in southern Cyprus, RAF Akrotiri, supporting AWACS surveillance aircraft and has a team of personnel there to coordinate British aircraft movement.
_Two British frigates, HMS Westminster and HMS Cumberland, are in the Mediterranean off Libya's coast ready to assist.
Norway:
_Offered six F-16s, with around 100 support staff, but operational capabilities five-six days off.
_Considering contributing an Orion maritime surveillance plane.
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| 20 MAR 2011 at 9:05am |
jejo68Centurion


Posts : 649 Joined: 15 NOV 2001
Status : Online | 4 danish planes just took of from sicily so lets see what happens
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| 20 MAR 2011 at 9:21am |
Centurion40General


Posts : 10892 Joined: 31 OCT 2003 Location: CA, Halifax
Status : Offline | Good hunting.
"I love Anne Hathaway and her penchant for nudity." -The Dawg of Metal

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| 20 MAR 2011 at 9:33am |
ActionJackColonel


Posts : 7885 Joined: 19 SEP 2005
Status : Offline | Fair amount of assets committed already and more on the way..
You've got to be kidding me! You're talking about a 24/7 operation and the number of aircraft you've mentioned is paltry to be sure. Also, U.S. air assets are to be withdrawn or so it's reported. Libya is huge. I have little doubt that the Libyan airforce is grounded (which could conceivably been accomplished with one CVBG) but that in and of itself is not going to make a big difference; not if a quick end to this is a goal. The longer it draws out the greater the chance of overall failure.
Arab League head says wanted no-fly zone not bombs T
he head of the Arab League has criticized international strikes on Libya, saying they caused civilian deaths.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4045027,00.html
"Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else." Frederic Bastiat 1801-1850

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| 20 MAR 2011 at 10:15am |
FlashmanCommander


Posts : 2127 Joined: 3 JAN 2005 Location: England, Worcestershire
Status : Offline | Fair amount of assets committed already and more on the way..
You've got to be kidding me! You're talking about a 24/7 operation and the number of aircraft you've mentioned is paltry to be sure. Also, U.S. air assets are to be withdrawn or so it's reported. Libya is huge. I have little doubt that the Libyan airforce is grounded (which could conceivably been accomplished with one CVBG) but that in and of itself is not going to make a big difference; not if a quick end to this is a goal. The longer it draws out the greater the chance of overall failure.
Paltry??? Enough with the negative waves !
More than enough assets in place to enforce a 'no fly zone' I'd say. But as a preliminary to a ground offensive then no. But no one has even suggested that one.
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| 20 MAR 2011 at 2:37pm |
ActionJackColonel


Posts : 7885 Joined: 19 SEP 2005
Status : Offline | Paltry??? Enough with the negative waves !
Thanks! You well make my point. If we are relying on 'good vibrations' for comfort that this operation will be successful, then it is paltry indeed.
"Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else." Frederic Bastiat 1801-1850

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| 20 MAR 2011 at 2:43pm |
KeunertCommander


Posts : 2364 Joined: 22 MAR 2006
Status : Offline | isn't it rather funny how much emphasis was put on the agreement of the arab league? aren't they exactly those regimes that are acting in a very libyian way?
I can stand brute force, but brute reason is quite unbearable. There is something unfair about its use. It is hitting below the intellect. Oscar Wilde

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| 21 MAR 2011 at 7:02am |
Marty WardColonel


Posts : 4969 Joined: 14 DEC 2005 Location: US
Status : Offline | What about all those planes we've sold to Saudi Arabia over the years? Where the heck are they? It's not like they need them at home to protect the country from the Yemani or Bahrainian air forces!
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| 21 MAR 2011 at 7:51am |
Airborne RiflesCenturion


Posts : 73 Joined: 8 AUG 2009
Status : Offline | I saw somewhere Qatar is sending four jets.
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