If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register or login before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
Topic: The Great Oil Swindle Scaling the Peak of Fossil Fuel Scarcity
"Delving deeper into the available data shows that we are already in the throes of a global energy transition in which the age of cheap oil is well and truly over. For most serious analysts, far from signifying a world running out of oil, 'peak oil' refers simply to the point when, due to a combination of below-ground geological constraints and above-ground economic factors, oil becomes increasingly and irreversibly more difficult and expensive to produce."
What is technically recoverable is always many times higher than what is actually extracted, and that in turn is decreased further given lower energy returns, especially for shale oil. What makes matters even worse is extraction rate unable to keep up with demand.
That's why the best-case scenario for the IEA is a 9-pct increase in energy production from all oil and gas sources worldwide for the next two decades. Unfortunately, the global economy needs to increase energy demand by 1.4 to 2 pct a year to maintain economic growth (the equivalent of one Saudi Arabia every seven years), and the 9-pct overall increase is based on the assumption that conventional oil production will never drop. But Morgan Stanley forecasts negative spare capacity soon: