Commander The Great War gets my vote.
It manages to capture the anxieties of the initial German push in the West in 1914. Germany can very badly damage France in this game, but must do most of it's damage in 1914. A few "stumbles" and the German momentum is lost, and Germany never gets another good chance in the West.
Like all WWI games though, much depends on what happens in 1914-either Germany does well and the game obviously tilts in its favor or there is a long, 4 year slog.