It's been over a year since the release of Pokémon TCG Pocket kicked off a truly chaotic time for the regular, physical card game. While those pack-ripping sessions are quite fun digitally, they don't beat the excitement of opening regular boosters, so plenty of Pocket collectors moved onto the cardboard version. With all those extra people collecting Pokémon cards, it's never been harder to get products - but will next year spell the end of this boom?
Based on factual evidence, I can confirm that Pokémon TCG fans have been truly f**ked this year - to put it lightly. Regular sets fly off shelves as if they're limited edition, while those high-class expansions like Prismatic Evolutions continue to get pricier on the secondary market. Printing to meet demand is proving difficult, and it doesn't feel like there's been any slowing down yet.
However, as a 24/7 Pokéfan, I can confirm the ongoing card frenzy is at last seeing a slight, albeit miniscule, drop in tempo. As the holidays come, collectors like myself are spending more money on gifts and less on the range of Pokémon sets available (if there are any) or other hobbies to treat ourselves. It's a brief window of minor peace, though; we shouldn't be celebrating just yet. It might just be the eye of the storm.
I know. I know. I wrote a piece a few months back about the Pokémon hype bubble potentially popping. While many of my ideas in that article, especially the facts at hand, remain correct, my hope that it was ending soon remains just that - hope. But, with Phantasmal Flames card prices dropping ridiculously quickly, it could be a sign of things to come.
A brief history lesson. If anyone was collecting cards around the - shudders - COVID era, there was a fair amount of excitement leading into the Pokémon Celebrations release in 2021 (the 25th Anniversary set). The Google Trends chart below shows the ups and downs in how many people search for the phrase 'Pokémon cards', and you can see a spike as leading into Celebrations' release, peaking just afterward. While it didn't drop to pre-Celebrations levels afterwards, it did mostly even out to a consistent level, which was nice.
Unfortunately, that card-collecting calm didn't last particularly long. With the release of Pokémon TCG Pocket in October 2024, another spike happened, but this time it was a big one, like the roar of a legendary coming to life. Sure, it dipped slightly after the New Year, but even now, over a year later, worldwide interest in Pokémon cards remains well above pre-Pocket levels, and card supply hasn't kept up - making it difficult to get any products at anything close to normal price.
It's a twofold problem. Yes, Pokémon Pocket brought a surge of new and returning fans in an explosion of card collecting Pokéstalgia that pretty much nobody was prepared for. But we also need to remember that the pre-Celebrations era of the Pokémon TCG was, to put it politely, really dull. As much as I rag on some modern sets, the quality and artwork of recent products are much, much better and, throughout the Scarlet & Violet era and into Mega Evolution, that's consistently drawn in collectors who'll hang about even once the hype wave disperses.
Still, there has been a slight dip in not only search volume, but prices on the secondary market. According to Pricecharting - which calculates average sales on TCGPlayer and eBay listings - Pokémon 151, Prismatic Evolutions, Destined Rivals, Paldean Fates, and even Twilight Masquerade have all seen a drop in average prices in recent weeks. The only sets this rule doesn't apply to seems to be out of print ones like Crown Zenith, where demand can't be met.
Seeing interest and prices sag like that, when we'd normally expect hype to be ramping up as we approach a bumper 30th anniversary release season, seems to suggest the crazy train may finally slowing down. I strongly believe it's a good signal that there could be healthy Pokémon TCG stock after the 30th Anniversary products are available.
Why afterwards? Well, whatever the current trends, I have zero doubt that the hype around 30 years of Pokémon will bring in another surge of nostalgia-driven demand, and therefore, both scalpers and longer-term 'investors' looking to take advantage of that hype. It's going to get worse before it gets better.
However, with the combination of ultra high demand and widespread stock scarcity that'll likely come with them, I suspect the Pokémon 30th Anniversary celebrations will ultimately leave many collectors frustrated once again, and ever more unwilling to buy products when they're only available at miles above retail price.
With fewer and fewer collectors willing to pay their swollen prices, scalpers will, I hope, be forced to admit defeat, scuttle off to some other fandom for a while, and in their absence perhaps stock will reach normalized levels for collectors like myself, where new cards can actually be bought at the prices the Pokémon Company intended.
It's essential that I say what this is - hope. It's not a definite, nor do I believe this will be an overnight fix. Instead, I believe we're going to feel the turmoil going into the 30th Anniversary, and perhaps for some time after. But I don't think the demand will stay high forever, and I think after a big surge, inevitably, it must go down. The bigger they are, well, the harder they fall.
While you're here, if you are looking for any Pokémon cards to pull over the holidays, I'd recommend heading to the following retailers:
In any case, make sure to join our Wargamer Discord, where you can chat with other trainers about how hard it is to get products and your favorite 'mon. We also share any news regarding the TCG, as well as those all-too-rare deals, whenever they may pop up.