If there's one thing every Pokémon TCG collector like me loves, it's the thrill of the chase, tearing open a pack to see a gorgeous SIR we've been hoping to pull.
Whether it comes from a random loose pack, or after three booster boxes, opening up a rare Pokémon card is always a great feeling. However, I don't like the new Mega Hyper Rare cards, the all-gold chase Pokémon cards that were recently added into packs. And it seems the community may be on my side here because, on the secondary market, Mega Hyper Rare cards are currently plummeting in price.
Introduced with the first set in the Pokémon TCG's Mega Evolutions era, Mega Hyper Rares are glitzy golden versions of the powered up Mega Evolution 'mons. I personally find them pretty dull, but even if they're not the best Pokémon cards, they do get bragging points for one thing - their scarcity.
According to TCGPlayer, based on 5,000 packs, MHRs from the Mega Evolutions Pokémon set have a 1 in 1,260 chance of being pulled. That's 1 in 2,520 if you want one of them in particular, and that makes them undoubtedly and extremely rare. For reference, a regular SIR is a 1 in 101 chance.
In all my years of collecting, I don't think I've ever opened up over 1,000 packs, which should put those odds into perspective. Of course, collectors will always want to get their hands on cards as scarce as these, but it seems the shine is wearing off, and the rate at which these cards are falling in value proves it.
According to TCGPlayer's charts, the hyper rare version of Mega Charizard X ex from Phantasmal Flames has dropped a massive 49% since launch, while Mega Evolutions' Mega Luracio ex #188 and Mega Gardevoir ex #187 have fallen 29% and 19%, respectively. Those last two don't sound like big drops, but since these cards were close to the $1000 mark, those percentages account for hundreds of dollars of lost value.
Pokémon Phantasmal Flames cards have been dropping in price anyway, but even when it launched, the Mega Hyper Rare wasn't the set's most expensive Pokémon card - it was the SIR. The all-Gold pull has dropped from a high sale of $899 to listings roughly on the $400 mark, with Lucario and Gardevoir now sitting around $500 and $300.
Don't get me wrong, these are still ridiculously pricey bits of cardboard, but this is a major indication of one of two things. Either fans are losing interest in the Mega Hyper Rares despite their incredible scarcity, or the hype bubble around the whole hobby is finally starting to pop. I'm putting money on the former, as products are still flying off shelves, even if things seem to be settling a little.
It'll be interesting to see if the buzz around the Pokémon Ascended Heroes pre-orders will see the set's Mega Hyper Rare Dragonite card explode in price, or whether other chases from the same set, like this beautiful SIR will be valued higher. Either way, we'll be covering it when the set launches, so make sure to join our Wargamer Discord - I promise I don't moan about those boring chases that often.