On December 25 Games Workshop revealed a brand new Warhammer 40k mini for Huron Blackheart, Renegade Chaos Space Marine lord, leader of the Red Corsairs, and the deposed Tyrant of Badab. By early January - at least as early as January 4 - photographs were circulating online of a 3D printed facsimile of the model, apparently generated using AI-powered software that can turn 2D images into 3D models. Some people have suggested that this is a radical and disruptive technology that will turn over Games Workshop's whole business model - I'm here to say that it means absolutely jack shit.
First of all, the rapid expansion in domestic 3D printing over the last decade has coincided with Games Workshop's longest consistent year on year growth in profits. The increasing ease with which fans can 3D print either bootlegs of Warhammer 40k miniatures, and original minis that are specifically designed to work as proxies for specific Warhammer 40k factions, has not damaged Games Workshop at all - though it has kept their lawyers busy with a fun new game of whackamole.
I have a separate article explaining why - for all that 3D printing is more user friendly and affordable than ever - it is still a relatively niche technology reserved for a subset of invested hobbyists, and will remain that way until something completely new happens with the technology. 3D printing hasn't even replaced traditional piracy - people still buy bootleg resin recasts of Forgeworld miniatures.
What is novel about this new imitation Huron model is that it was generated from a single 2D image. It is remarkable that any software can translate 2D images into 3D models, though the technology is hardly unprecedented. The 2014 videogame 'The Vanishing of Ethan Carter' contained remarkably detailed graphics of natural environments despite the game's small budget, thanks to 'photogrammetry' technology, a non-AI system that converts multiple 2D images into a 3D model.
The reason that photogrammetry uses multiple 2D images of an object rather than just one is so it can identify the different parts of it across multiple photos taken from different angles, and use that data to calculate how everything fits together in 3D space. With a lot of images this can get fairly accurate - though it's notable that when museums want to make 3D models of their collections, they use the far more accurate laser-scanning method.
When 2D to 3D conversion tools like Meshy and Tripo 3D generate 3D models from a single image they have only the barest information about the object's 3D shape, and literally no information about anything that's not in the shot. They fill in the gaps by generating statistically likely forms based on the average of a whole bunch of other models, without any actual understanding of form, context, or the identity of components.
In the image above, the belt of the Huron facsimile is rendered wrong - and that's part of the model that was clearly in the original photographs. And it's notable that there isn't an image of the reverse of the model, nor any images of it from different angles. The video project below uses an AI tool to create models from a classic DnD cover, and its limitations when creating elements that aren't part of a photograph are illustrative:
What use case is there for this? If you want to, you can get a deformed copy of an unreleased model. I guess some people will be happy with that. There's very little advantage for people making knock-offs. Anyone who has the skills to refine that 3D model into something better also has the skills to create a model from scratch (and would probably find it easier, as the AI-generated 3D model won't be broken up into components for easy editing).
If I predict any impact from this, it's that people buying bootlegs will have to be extra careful that their supplier isn't using this technology. Just like AI generated images of minis on Instagram, running into one in the wild will be a disappointing and faintly embarrassing problem for the community - and not for Games Workshop.
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