Every three years, Games Workshop gives Warhammer 40k a fresh coat of paint, a new rulebook, and a big, celebratory box set full of new models, aimed at reeling more folks into the hobby. These resets are called 'editions' of the game, and we're due another one in Summer 2026 - you can read everything we know about it in our overall guide to Warhammer 40k 11th edition. Perhaps the biggest open question is which of the Imperium of Man's many foes gets to play the Big Villain for this chapter of 40k's meandering storyline - so let's break out Wargamer's Wheel of Wacky Antagonists and give it a spin, shall we?
To be clear, this isn't just an important question for slavering lore hounds who've read all the Horus Heresy books and crave new story beats. Nor is it merely an exercise in ingeniously decoding GW's future plans via feverish tinfoil hat detective work (much though we terminally online 40k fans love to do that).
In fact, working out which of the Warhammer 40k factions will be humanity's nemesis du jour for the next three years has a serious practical impact for hobbyists old and new: it tells us which army's about to get a shiny range of new models in the (inevitable) launch box set.
'Launch boxes' have varied in format over Warhammer 40k's 39-year lifespan but, since 2017, Games Workshop has launched each new edition with a similar flagship boxed set that includes the updated rulebook and two full, playable armies of brand new, never before seen miniatures. One of those forces is always the Space Marines - but their opposition changes each time.
In 2017's Dark Imperium box it was the Death Guard; 2020's Indomitus box gave us new Necrons; and 2023's Leviathan box was stacked full of Tyranids. Who'll we get in 2026? Naturally, we can only make educated predictions, as Games Workshop's corporate mouth remains stolidly shut on the topic for now.
But we at Wargamer are rather good at making educated predictions, so let's review the likely candidates.
Chaos?
Given two editions in a row have put a Xenos race front and center, we think it's highly likely a Chaos army will get a turn in 2026 - they've waited nine years, after all. Not every heretic force is in the frame, however.
As the models for Chaos Daemons have to do double duty in Age of Sigmar as well, they're unlikely to receive a 40k-specific refresh. That leaves the core Chaos Space Marines army, World Eaters, Thousand Sons, Chaos Knights, and the newly revamped Emperor's Children as possible candidates.
Knights are too expensive to fit a playable army in a starter box, so they're out. Emperor's Children are a smaller army that'd no doubt benefit from reinforcements - but their codex came with a spangly new Fulgrim model and a renewed plastic range only last year. The Thousand Sons and World Eaters also have fairly modern model ranges that don't desperately need expansion or an overhaul.
So, we think Chaos Space Marines are most likely to be the Imperium's next bête noire. But that begs the question: which Chaos Space Marines?
Black Legion?
Abaddon the Despoiler's infamous Black Legion, reborn in black and gold, are the front runners here. Abaddon himself - the main puppet master of modern chaotic happenings - has been behind most of the major events in the Dawn of Fire novel series, which is among the closest things 40k has had to a 'main narrative' in recent years. After a few years of focusing on Tyranid wars, it's about time all the Black Legion's spooky plots with Vashtorr the Arkifane during 2023's Arks of Omen narrative series started bearing some story fruit.
All that narrative importance counts in the Black Legion's favor as a starter set opponent. So does its de facto status as the 'default' Chaos Marines: these are the dudes depicted on the front of CSM model kit boxes, meaning a launch box full of new 'stock' chaos marine models could be themed for a Black Legion storyline, while still allowing you to build and paint them as your own special warband, without the need for any kitbashing. It's a compelling case - but it's not the only contender.
Iron Warriors?
For a moment, in late 2025, we thought we might see Perturabo, gloomiest of all the Warhammer 40k primarchs and lord of the Iron Warriors chaos legion, return with a brand new model at Christmas. As it turns out, renegade pirate Huron Blackheart and his Red Corsairs took that spot - but all was not lost for 4th Legion fans, as GW's January preview stream revealed the Iron Warriors are returning after all.
The question is, are they returning as a fully fledged standalone army (like the Thousand Sons, Death Guard, World Eaters, and Emperor's Children before them) or will they remain a mere conversion option for vanilla chaos marines?
Based on GW's reveal, in late January 2026, of a single new Warsmith mini and an Iron Warriors upgrade kit, we think it's the latter - which most likely puts them out of the running as a starter set force. With its trademark coyness, Warhammer Community ended the reveal with "more to come soon" - but our money's on that turning out to be the final volume in its pre-11th edition narrative series, not the launch story we expect in June.
Night Lords?
Alternatively, the Night Lords would make for a real turn-up for the books. Unlike the last four traitor legions to be given a fully playable, revamped 40k army, the Night Lords don't follow a single patron chaos god for their models to be themed around, and they don't have a daemon primarch (poor old Konrad Curze got killed by an Imperial Assassin just after the end of the Horus Heresy).
Those all count against the Night Lords' chances of being fully faction-ified. In their favor, they're incredibly cool, ruthless killers with a distinctive, goth-y style, so there's lots for the designers to work on. New Kill Team minis are often an indicator that a larger range of new models is in development for any given faction - and the Night Lords have had two of them in as many years: 2024's Nemesis Claw and 2026's Murderwing teams.
At the moment, that's enough to run a pretty compelling Night Lords army out of the base Chaos Space Marine codex, but perhaps there's enough new stuff coming for them to stand alone.
Word Bearers?
In some ways, it's surprising the Word Bearers don't get more airtime (and models) in mainline 40k. They're canonically the very first Chaos Space Marines in the setting, the originators of the Horus Heresy, and arguably the most gratuitously despicable of the bunch, given their predilections for macabre ritual torture, sacrifice, and literal devil worship. Their daemon primarch Lorgar is definitely still alive out there, waiting to return with a big, nightmarish centerpiece miniature.
Thing is, though, their favorite battlefield tactics - complex warp magic and daemon summoning - are far less relevant and represented in the Warhammer 40k tabletop game we play today. Psychic spells have been simplified and slotted into datasheets as passive abilities or alternate attacks, and daemon summoning (always a fiddly business, rules wise) isn't really a thing anymore.
Could it be them? Yes. Do we think it's likely? No - but as left field appearances go, this would take the biscuit, so don't give up hope, 17th Legion fans.
Wild card - what about Dark Mechanicum?
Perhaps the least likely, but also coolest possible option for 40k's next primary antagonist, would be for GW to finally turn the Dark Mechanicum - the chaotic mirror of the tech-loving Adepticus Mechanicus - into a proper playable army.
Fans have been asking for it for years, and the recent, phenomenally popular Siege of Terra books have reminded an awful lot of folks about just how horrendously awesome heretek daemon engines and their spiky, oily mech troops can be. In recent years, the Horus Heresy wargame and its teeny tiny twin Legions Imperialis have introduced Dark Mechanicum models, inevitably sparking rumors that a dark and glorious entry onto the 41st millennium tabletop is coming next.
There's absolutely no doubt that, of all the possibilities we list here, Dark Mechanicum would make the biggest wave in the community, not just adding a completely new playable faction to the game, but finally bringing to the tabletop a force that's been present in the lore for a very, very long time.
Technically, GW has never yet launched a brand new faction as part of a new edition starter set - but in real terms, that's pretty much exactly what it did with Death Guard in 8th Edition's Dark Imperium box. So it's not quite unprecedented, and while it's not our prediction, it's what we hope will happen!
Xenos?
On the whole, as we said, we reckon a Xenos (alien) army is less likely to be 11th Edition's headline baddie than the servants of Chaos. But there are no certainties here and, with eight existing Xenos factions, GW has a lot of choices. We can narrow down those options quite a bit, based on a combined measure of mass appeal, and evident need for an updated model range.
On that basis, we can rule out the Tyranids and Necrons, who starred in the last two editions and thus have a pile of brand new models already. As a minor faction added to the game less than four years ago, and given a bunch of new units in 2025, Leagues of Votann are also off our list. With them go the Tau Empire and Genestealer Cults, which both have relatively new, relatively complete model ranges, and are in any case fairly niche, specialist choices we wouldn't expect GW to launch a whole edition with.
We hesitate to write off the Aeldari entirely - they're classic 40k aliens with very broad appeal, and there are still some beloved kits awaiting modern refreshes. But the Eldar have seen a steady stream of new models in the last three years, from Phoenix Lords and Aspect Warriors to the lowliest Guardians. It just seems too unlikely that GW could have a complete army's worth of brand new Aeldari models hiding under its hat right now. So, that leaves us with just two Xenos possibilities.
Orks?
Frankly, Orks are always a possibility - they're a classic starter set opponent, not seen since 5th Edition's Assault on Black Reach launch box in 2008. Plus, despite a string of core units getting new models during 10th Edition, there are still a great many older Orks kits that would benefit from an update.
The other reason Orks are our prime suspect for the 11th Edition starter set is more lore focused. If 11th Edition's big opening storyline is set on the planet Armageddon - as the current unsourced, 'trust me bro' community scuttlebutt seems convinced it is - then the greenskins would be guaranteed to play a major role, and in that case, not casting them as the launch box antagonists would be a big surprise.
For once, we're inclined to agree with the rumor mill. In the absence of newer evidence, there's more reason to believe 11th Edition's launch storyline will center on this ill fated, constantly embattled planet than anywhere else. And, if it does, the Green Tide would be a natural choice as public enemy number one.
When 2025's Crusade: Armageddon supplement set up the Fourth War for Armageddon as a major subplot, Ork fans justifiably assumed the greenskins would be a major player - but it turned out to be almost entirely about the Grey Knights, Khornate cultists, Black Templars, and Space Wolves.
In the never ending merry-go-round of sudden, galactic scale existential threats to humanity, we haven't seen a massive Ork Waaagh! hit the top of the threats list in a long time. With Armageddon, the greenskins' favorite punchbag, becoming a flash point again - why not now?
Drukhari?
Since the Dark Eldar were the very last faction to get their 10th edition codex, it's unlikely they'll star in the 11th edition launch box. But, hear us out: maybe they still could?
The Drukhari are famously starved of new models, to the point where it's become a running joke among 40k fans. Pretty much every other army that had been languishing with only 20-year old plastic sculpts and hellish Forge World resin character models to play with has received a shiny new range in the last few years, most notably, of course, the Aeldari. And when the Dark Kin did get their latest 'dex, it came with a paltry two new miniatures.
Old hands who remember the 40k 3rd edition starter set, released in 1998, will recall that it pitted the Black Templars against none other than a force of Dark Eldar Kabalite Warriors, so there is absolutely a precedent for the Dark Kin kicking off an edition.
And, while Wargamer doesn't report on leaks or rumors, it doesn't mean we don't have eyes in the dark places of the Warhammer internet, which have seen advance hints of the wave of new Drukhari miniatures we all know are inevitably on their way, eventually.
So, it's possible, and would be extremely rad, if GW chose to pit marines against Drukhari for the 11th edition launch box. We'd rate the chances at maybe 30% at this stage. Only time will tell.
So, who's it going to be?
Without recourse to the unsourced assurances of forum posters' uncles' cousins' friends who definitely work at GW, we can't know for sure who 40k's next big bad will be.
But if you put our feet to the fire and make us name a name, we'd say it'll most likely be either Orks or generic / Black Legion Chaos Space Marines. To find out for definite, we'll have to wait for Games Workshop to pull back the curtains on 11th edition - but it won't be long now! The last three editions have been announced in Spring and launched in June - so unless something major changes this time, we're expecting the big reveal in just a couple months.
Until then, by all means come and (politely) tear down all our analysis and predictions in the free Wargamer Discord community, where we can guarantee 11th ed speculation is going to start getting very hot, very soon.