In some ways, Warhammer 40k really hasn't changed much in the 33 years since I was born. Sure, the minis got bigger and more detailed; plentiful new Warhammer 40k factions sprouted; the rules evolved; the lore got more coherent and less amusing. Stuff has changed. But the core hobby is the same in 11th edition as it was in 1992: buy models, paint models, play games with models. 48 hours ago, I basically assumed GW would stick with that formula forever. Now, I think it's going to change fundamentally, and possibly quite soon. I don't think it'll be too long until we'll be able to buy pre-painted Warhammer models in stores.
What changed my mind? On Wednesday, Games Workshop released a 'counter-leak' video unveiling a new range of pre-painted plastic terrain pieces for Warhammer 40k (watch it below). Like most things that excite Warhammer fans, it's hard to explain to others why this is such a huge deal; after all, most plastic toys come pre-painted, don't they? If anything, it's weird that our toys don't.
Except it is a big deal. Partly, that's because this terrain is going to be super handy and sell like hot cakes (even if it does cost an arm and a leg). The game needs scenery, the best scenery is detailed plastic or resin models, and those are time-consuming and tedious to paint. Being able to just buy the good stuff, painted and ready to use, is a serious game-changer.
That's exciting on its own, but the truly explosive news is that Games Workshop did this at all. It's a seismic shift in terms of how the High Lords of Nottingham seem to be planning Warhammer's future.
Pre-painted plastic tabletop gaming models are not a brand new, bleeding edge, sci-fi technology. HeroClix's pre-painted figures bridged the kids' toy/hobby game gap in 2002. The late, lamented Star Wars X-Wing proved it could also be done with proper, detailed, realistic miniatures - 14 years ago. GW has been bigger and richer than the companies behind those games for years, and it could have developed pre-painted Warhammer pieces anytime it wanted - but there's never been the slightest hint it was considering anything of the kind, until this week.
GW is, famously, a cautious, slow moving beast. It rotates its games' rules, storylines, and aesthetics over time and, for fans, some of those turning points (like the launch of 10th Edition) can feel revolutionary. But they aren't, not really. Rules come and go, but the basic thing GW does to make money is sell top quality miniatures for people to paint and play with. That hasn't changed since 1987, because GW doesn't futz with what works.
Yet now, suddenly, it has. In the 'supporting actor' category of tabletop terrain, GW has demonstrated, for the first time ever, that it's willing to cut the 'painting' part out of the winning Warhammer formula altogether. This isn't something GW would, or even could, do on a whim, as a one-off experiment. The company has made a significant investment to do it. We don't yet know how it's making the new pre-painted scenery - but either it's bought in some advanced new machinery of its own, or it's partnering with another firm that has it already.
Neither are steps the GW leviathan takes often or lightly - nor, I think it's fair to surmise, without the prospect of it making big money. Bigger money, I suspect, than just those terrain pieces would deliver. To quote GW's official corporate strategy: "We make the best fantasy miniatures in the world, to engage and inspire our customers, and to sell our products globally at a profit. We intend to do this forever. Our decisions are focused on long-term success, not short term gains."
Thus far, I think, GW has mostly held off making ready painted Warhammer not out of an abstract loyalty to supporting miniature painting as a self-contained hobby - but merely because the magic printer didn't yet exist that could auto-paint fresh models and still fulfil its commitment to "the best fantasy miniatures in the world". I can only speak for myself but, looking at that new 40k terrain, I'd say that magic printer can't be far off.
Auto-painting a big ruined wall isn't the same as auto-painting a Space Marine - but it's closer than you might think. With a small amount of human help, the Prismacast UV-painting tech already being used by Archon Studio (the polish firm making the new Starcraft miniatures game) can get into tiny nooks and crannies, at least well enough for a 'battle ready' finish. Look closely at the pre-painted 40k terrain in GW's video, and you'll see a bunch of fiddly, enclosed areas painted at least as well as your average slap-chopped Intercessor. Bottom line, we may not be there right now, but GW's investment proves it's highly interested in going down this road.
And let's face it, why would it not be? Remember the "global", "profit", and "long-term success" parts of the corporate mission? Games Workshop has eaten GOOD in the last few years on a combination of licensing big-selling Warhammer 40k videogames, and using them to recruit new folks into the tabletop hobby. But growing profits forever (as all publicly traded companies must do) means never leaving money on the table, even if it means taking the occasional risk. And there's one gigantic customer segment Warhammer has always missed out on: people who don't want to, don't have time to, or simply can't paint miniatures.
How many times have you heard a friend say "Warhammer looks awesome, and I'd give it a try, but I can't face painting all those tiny dudes"? How many times have you seen someone excitedly drop 500 bucks or more on their first army, burn out, sell it on Ebay and never come back? To GW, every one of those people is a potential lifelong customer, lost. Every abortive $500 Warhammer haul is a potential $10,000 lifetime value down the toilet.
Painting miniatures is a wonderful hobby, and if you love it, it elevates the rest of Warhammer - but at the end of the day, not everyone does. A large number of people just want to play - and, while a few of them have the cash to pay a friend or a pro to paint their army for them, I'm prepared to bet that most simply bounce off and do something else.
Painting armies is simply the biggest bottleneck in GW's moneymaking pipeline, and if it can sidestep that with ready painted models at a workable price point, it absolutely will. It's a complete no-brainer, unlocking a whole new group of customers and more impulse buys from hobbyists new and old. Sure, it'll lose some paint sales - but I suspect it already was, with the explosion of cheaper alternatives to Citadel - sorry, 'Warhammer Paint' - in recent years.
So, I'm pretty certain we're now quite close to the era of ready painted Warhammer. It'll likely begin with Warhammer 40k starter sets - GW's 'easy to build' models prove it's happy to develop expensive new manufacturing processes to make those more accessible, and what could be more accessible than battle ready models right out of the box? Last week, I'd have scoffed at the prospect, but now? Ready or not, sooner or later, here they come.
As someone who already owns several armies (and adores mini painting as a rare, mind calming reprieve from the crushing existential horror of the now), I doubt I'll be a big spender on pre-painted Warhammer, as and when it arrives. But me and my friends as 8th Edition re-joiners in 2017, hyped up to get back into the game as quickly as possible? We'd have snapped them up faster than you can say Ave Imperator.
What about you - would you buy ready painted Warhams? Come join the free Wargamer Discord community and let me know your thoughts; I'm genuinely curious to see how everybody feels about this.